Despite the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) recent increase in monetary policy rates, the steady rise in the inflation rate persists, particularly impacting rural areas where the price of foodstuff has nearly doubled over the past three years. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April 2024, published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), revealed that the Rural CPI for food almost doubled compared to figures from the past three years.
Despite the CBN’s efforts to tighten liquidity by increasing monetary policy rates by 400 and 200 basis points in February and March, respectively, inflationary pressures continue unabated.
According to analysts at Nairametrics, the average food prices for rural Nigerians increased by 99.22% from April 2021 to April 2024.
The CPI, as defined in the report, measures the average change in the cost of goods and services consumed by people over time, with a base year of November 2009 (100).
An analysis of the data showed a significant increase in rural food CPI from March 2021 to April 2024. In March 2021, the food CPI stood at 419.7, marginally increasing to 423.7 in April 2021.
Subsequently, the food CPI rose to 488.4 by March 2022, further climbing to 497.9 in April 2022, indicating a year-on-year (Y-O-Y) inflation of 17.50% and a month-on-month (M-O-M) inflation of 1.94%.
The inflationary trend continued as the rural food CPI surged to 601.4 in March 2023 and reached 613.2 in April 2023, with Y-O-Y inflation at 23.17% and M-O-M inflation at 1.97%.
In April 2024, the food inflation rate reached 40.53% on a year-on-year basis, marking a 15.92% increase compared to April 2023 (24.61%).
Further analysis of the data revealed food inflation figures across several Nigerian states. Kogi state reported the highest food inflation value on a year-on-year basis at 48.62% in April 2024, followed by Kwara (46.73%) and Ondo (45.87%). Meanwhile, Adamawa (33.61%), Bauchi (33.85%), and Nasarawa (34.03%) recorded the slowest rise in food inflation on a year-on-year basis.
On a month-on-month basis, Lagos recorded the highest food inflation at 4.74% in April 2024, followed by Edo (4.06%) and Yobe (3.99%). Conversely, Kano (0.47%), Adamawa (0.98%), and Zamfara (1.50%) reported the slowest rise in food inflation.